Electricity demand grows by about 30% from 2020 to 2035, owing to electrification of fuel-based building demands (e.g., heating), vehicles, and industrial processes. Expanding clean electricity supply yields deeper decarbonization.In addition, advances in managing distributed energy resources, such as rooftop solar and electric vehicles, are needed to efficiently integrate these resources into the grid. ![]() Small-scale solar, especially coupled with storage, can enhance resilience by allowing buildings or microgrids to power critical loads during grid outages. Storage capacity expands rapidly, to more than 1,600 GW in 2050. Storage, transmission expansion, and flexibility in load and generation are key to maintaining grid reliability and resilience.Deployment rates accelerate for wind and energy storage as well. Similarly substantial solar deployment rates continue in the 2030s and beyond. Compared with the approximately 15 GW of solar capacity deployed in 2020, annual solar deployment is 30 GW on average in the early 2020s and grows to 60 GW on average from 2025 to 2030. Achieving decarbonization requires significant acceleration of clean energy deployment, which will employ as many as 500,000–1.5 million people in solar jobs by 2035.Ninety-five percent decarbonization of the electric grid is achieved in 2035 without increasing electricity prices because decarbonization and electrification costs are fully offset by savings from technological improvements and enhanced demand flexibility. With continued technological advances, electricity prices do not increase through 2035.Key Findings of the Solar Futures StudyĮxplore the interactive diagrams for the study’s results and frequently asked questions below. While the previous studies focused on the impacts of low-cost solar technologies on the economy, this study dives into solar energy’s role in a decarbonized grid and provides analysis of future solar technologies, the solar workforce, and how solar energy might interact with other technologies like storage. The Solar Futures Study is the third in a series of vision studies from SETO and NREL, preceded by the SunShot Vision Study (2012) and On the Path to SunShot (2016). energy system could result in as much as 3,200 GW ac of solar due to increased electrification of buildings, transportation, and industrial energy and production of clean fuels. Preliminary modeling shows that decarbonizing the entire U.S. ![]() By 2050, solar capacity would need to reach 1,600 GW ac to achieve a zero-carbon grid with enhanced electrification of end uses (such as motor vehicles and building space and water heating). To reach these levels, solar deployment will need to grow by an average of 30 gigawatts alternating current (GW ac) each year between now and 2025 and ramp up to 60 GW per year between 20-four times its current deployment rate-to total 1,000 GWac of solar deployed by 2035.
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